As the stars are busily getting waxed and coiffed for this Sunday's Academy Awards Ceremony, thousands of people across the country are facing the same question: who the heck do they vote for in their Oscar pool? Slumdog or Ben Button? Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke? David Fincher or Danny Boyle? The choices can be overwhelming. I don't claim to have any insider knowledge at Price Waterhouse, but the Academy, as a body, tends to vote in patterns. Knowing these patterns can give you a leg up over your friends, enemies, and co-workers in picking who wins Oscar gold.
1. Follow the Guilds
There are professional unions for virtually every aspect of filmmaking in this town -- hello, Art Director's Guild -- and the people who are in these guilds tend to be the same people who vote for the Oscars in their category. Note which movies are raking in the trophies and vote accordingly. Thus, Danny Boyle won the Director's Guild prize this year, so he's a pretty good bet for winning the gold on Sunday. But, as usual, this rule isn't hard and fast: Julie Christie won the Screen Actor Guild trophy only to watch Marion Cotillard get the Oscar. Though Sean Penn won the SAG prize this year, Mickey Rourke might just win instead.
2a. The Oldest/Youngest Rule
The Best Supporting Actor prize usually goes for the oldest guy nominated. Think of it as a sort of lifetime achievement award. Thus Tommy Lee Jones won for "The Fugitive" and Alan Arkin won for "Little Miss Sunshine." Since Heath Ledger's nomination is obviously going to be seen as a lifetime achievement award -- especially since the Academy stiffed him for "Brokeback Mountain" -- he's the one vote for.
2b. On the flip side, "Best Supporting Actress" awards tend to go to the youngest woman nominated. Think Angelina Jolie in "Girl, Interrupted," Mira Sorvino in "Mighty Aphrodite" and Anna Paquin in "The Piano." Of course, there are exceptions here too; 12-year-old Saoirse Ronan lost to Tilda Swinton last year, for instance. This year, this category is a bit of a toss up. The Academy might follow its tendencies and give the nod to either Amy Adams or Taraji P. Henson. Or they might just give it to Penelope Cruz (Being in a Woody Allen movie helps your chances in the category; Diane Wiest won twice in his films). Your best bet is close your eyes and pick blindly.
3. The Best Picture Factor
Movies that get the coveted Best Picture nomination are much more likely to get the gold for their actors. Thus Tilda Swinton won for the Best Picture nominated "Michael Clayton," even though that movie didn't take home any other trophies. Same goes for Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Capote." This might bode well for either Sean Penn or Frank Langella.
4. The Numerous Nominations Factor
The more times an actor gets nominated but doesn't win, the more likely he/she is to win the gold the next time. Thus Russell Crowe won for "Gladiator" (one prevous nomination), Sean Penn for "Mystic River" (three noms), and Al Pacino for "Scent of a Woman" (seven nods without a win). Once that actor wins the prize, however, it's actually harder to win again. There are exceptions, of course; ask Tom Hanks. In general, though, this looks good for Kate Winslet and Heath Ledger, but so much for Sean Penn.
5. The Hoop Skirt Factor
The movie with the most hoop skirts almost always wins Best Costume Design.
6. The X-Factor
Some stories are too good to pass up. Think Charlize Theron transforming herself for her role in "Monster." If the story is good enough, it pretty much trumps every other Academy rule. Thus Heath Ledger wowing critics with his turn as the Joker so soon after his untimely death is one good story. Mickey Rourke resurrecting his career after spending the past half-decade in wretched obscurity is another.
7. The Panic Choice
If you haven't a clue what to vote for, pick the movie that sounds like it's most closely related to the Holocaust. Think of it like filling in that fail-safe "C" bubble on the SATs.
Got your own rules for predicting an Oscar winner? Share it with everyone in the comments.
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